Jets vs. Steelers: Week 1 Preview
Week One of the NFL season is finally here, and the New York Jets open the season hosting Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Jets are currently 2.5-point underdogs, and the total score over/under sits at 38.5 points, as the expectation is that this will be a defensive-minded battle between teams that swapped their starting quarterbacks from last season’s opening week.
Jets Hit With Another Early-Season Injury
After a relatively healthy preseason, the Jets took a big hit on their offensive line as Alijah Vera-Tucker tore a tricep for the second time in his career. AVT had surgery on it and is out for the year again, adding another brutal injury to his career and likely costing him a big payday.
The injury is a shot at one of the deepest position groups for New York. The likely adjustment will be to have Joe Tippmann move to guard, and Josh Myers will be the starting center on Sunday. This also moves Chuks Okorafor into the first lineman off the bench if there is another injury or poor play by either Tippmann or Myers. Okorafor can play each position on the line and will now be a crucial depth piece for a group that needs to keep Justin Fields in position to succeed and stay healthy.
Steelers Under Pressure
The Steelers are coming off their 21st consecutive season without a losing record, tying the Cowboys for the longest such streak (The Jets, of course, have not had a winning record in a decade). Still, there is a sense of complacency that Steelers’ fans have begun to rebel against, making this a high-pressure 19th season for Mike Tomlin.
Rodgers at the helm means there is no option but to win now for a team that hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2016 campaign. Pittsburgh cut ties with their leading passer (Russel Wilson), rusher (Najee Harris), and receiver (George Pickens) from 2024, and they have new weapons to lean on this season. DK Metcalf, Jonnu Smith, and the 2025 third-round pick Kaleb Johnson will look to give this offense a jump start after finishing 16th in points scored and 6th worst in passing.
The Rodgers Effect
Rodgers attempted the second-most passes last season, but finished 8th in yards and 25th in QBR despite the volume. The future Hall of Famer will benefit from a more balanced attack this season and should be stronger than last year physically now that he is another year removed from his devastating Achilles injury that derailed the Jets' 2023 season.
Another difference between this year and last year for Rodgers will obviously be the stability the franchise brings. Rodgers certainly brought noise to the team, but Robert Salah’s extremely player-friendly approach led to an atmosphere of zero accountability around the sluggish play of the quarterback. This reached a quick boil after a sleepy loss to the Broncos in week four and a disastrous loss to the Vikings in London in front of Woody Johnson’s British buddies, leading to the early dismissal of Salah, which effectively ended the Jets' season.
This will not be an issue in Pittsburgh. Tomlin is a world-class head coach, and his relationship with Rodgers seems to be full of respect. Early losses could lead to discontent in the fan base, but I do not see any in-season changes happening like we saw last season in New York.
First Look at the New Jets
For Gang Green, week one is an opportunity to remove the stench from the last two seasons and give the fan base a clean slate. Even if the Jets do not win, a strong performance and some grit by the team will give the faithful hope that this is a new Jets team full of accountability and potential. A no-show or a big game for Rodgers will be bad for morale, especially considering the tough starting schedule that sees the Bills, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Broncos, and Bengals all before the week 9 bye.
The biggest test will be for the young tackles, rookie Armand Mebou and second-year starting left tackle Olu Fashanu. The pair of first-round picks will face off against T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward, two of the most prolific pass rushers in the league who have nearly 200 combined sacks to their name. Any hope of an upset win will rely on a representative performance for the young pass blockers and early game wrecking by the Steelers.
The Steelers were at the bottom of the league in team passing defense, but top five against the run, so Fields being able to get the ball to Garret Wilson, Breece Hall, and rookie tight end Mason Taylor through the air will be the Jets' best bet at taking a victory.
Allan’s Prediction
19-10 Steelers. This game is going to be sloppy, and I do not think the Jets are ready to air it out like it will be necessary to beat the Steelers' defense. Fields' average air yards per attempt was 4.5 yards per pass, and unless they can dominate in the run game (which is unlikely), I expect a lot of third and mediums that are not converted from the Gang Green offense. I do not think that Rodgers, who did not play in the preseason, will come out particularly sharp, but the Steelers will do enough to pull off a road victory.
