The Fair Expectations For Justin Fields

Aug 5

We are two weeks into training camp and days away from the Jets' first preseason game, and you already get the sense that the media and fans are getting shaky on Justin Fields.

Fields started camp off strong, but as Connor Hughes of SNY reported from practice on Tuesday morning, Fields over the last four practices is 15 of 49 with three interceptions. Not what you want when you are trying to get a team and fanbase to believe Fields is on the Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold trajectory, where a top pick finds his footing on his third team after not showing a ton of positive results. Aaron Glenn has not sounded concerned talking about Fields, and he continues to say he is getting better every day. Still, another few practices like this, along with the injury to Tyrod Taylor, could lead to real concern.

It is unclear how much playing time he will get in preseason games, if any at all, but I think it would be beneficial if he got some live reps with the first team in a game situation. Fields is a project, and the offense around him is mostly comprised of new Jets. Waiting until Week 5 of the regular season for this group to find chemistry is not an option, given their schedule, unless the Jets want to stare at a 1-4 start.

Justin Fields Career Statistics

  
      Year
      Team
      GP
      GS
      Completion %
      Passing Yards
      Passing TDs
      Interceptions
      Passer Rating
      QBR
      Rushing Yards
      Rushing TDs
    

  
      2021
      Chicago Bears
      12
      10
      58.9%
      1,870
      7
      10
      73.2
      31.4
      420
      2
    

      2022
      Chicago Bears
      15
      15
      60.4%
      2,242
      17
      11
      85.2
      56.3
      1,143
      8
    

      2023
      Chicago Bears
      13
      13
      61.4%
      2,562
      16
      9
      86.3
      46.1
      657
      4
    

      2024
      Pittsburgh Steelers
      10
      6
      65.8%
      1,106
      5
      1
      93.3
      50.8
      289
      5
    

      Career Totals
      
      50
      44
      61.1%
      7,780
      45
      31
      83.9
      47.1 (29th our of 34 qualified QBs)
      2,509
      19
    

With this said, what is the fair expectation for Fields in his first year under center with the Jets? For me, as I said on episode 1 of the Gang Green Against The World podcast, it is all about what type of play can get the Jets to 9 wins, and that means Fields is a top 20 QB in the league. He has never thrown for more than 2,600 yards in a season, and his career high in touchdowns is 17, so to expect something like 3,500 yards and 25 TDs is just unreasonable, and he should not be held to that standard.

What he can be held to is having a season similar or better than his sophomore campaign with the Bears, where he threw for 2,242 yards with 17 touchdowns to 11 picks, and added over a thousand yards on the ground and 8 additional TDs. That type of season, assuming the defense is top 15 (no guarantee at all of that) and they dominate time of possession by using their three beasts in the backfield, should be enough to get the Jets to 9 wins.

Fields needs to show more in camp, and with the knee injury to Tyrod Taylor likely to have him miss some time, it is important he leaves as healthy as possible. So, no stepping on his toes, o-line!

Justin FieldsAaron GlennPreseason Week 1